154
ACUS11 KWNS 142353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142352
MNZ000-150145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142352Z - 150145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY PERSIST INTO THE 8-9 PM CDT TIME
FRAME, BEFORE DISSIPATING.
DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AROUND 850 MB HAS WEAKENED/SHIFTED EAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS,
AND TEMPERATURES FURTHER ALOFT (ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND 700 MB) HAVE
BEGUN TO SLOWLY WARM, A FOCUSED AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH WEST OF REDWOOD FALLS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN SLOWLY PROPAGATING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONTAL
ZONE, BENEATH MODERATELY SHEARED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 25 KTS, LIKELY AIDED BY UPDRAFT INFLOW OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AND SIZABLE CAPE.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME RECENT WEAKENING EVIDENT, IT MAY NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ACTIVITY COULD UNDERGO RE-INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THEREAFTER, THOUGH, INCREASING
INHIBITION DUE TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AND A BIT MORE
SUBSTANTIVE WARMING ALOFT ARE EXPECTED SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER AND LEAD TO A RAPID DISSIPATION.
..KERR/GUYER.. 08/14/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...
LAT...LON 44479543 44309499 44069520 44079605 44549614 44479543
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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