078
ACUS11 KWNS 150150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150149
MNZ000-NDZ000-150345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOA AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 150149Z - 150345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND A FEW ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING CELLS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 10-11 PM CDT. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS, IT IS NOT
CLEAR THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NEEDED. HOWEVER, TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING TO THE EAST THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
REMAINS GENERALLY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH INDICATES A FOCUSED AREA OF
DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE OVERSPREADING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
VICINITY. THIS, COUPLED WITH LIFT ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT, APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION TO SUPPORT A RECENTLY DEVELOPING STORM PASSING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE GRAND FORKS ND VICINITY.
THIS IS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES,
WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS, AND THERE DOES APPEAR A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS CONVECTIVE TO ACQUIRE INFLOW OF
SEASONABLY MOIST AIR CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE CAPE. FOR HOW LONG
REMAINS UNCLEAR, AS CONVECTION MAY TEND TO BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE
WEAK COLD FRONT AND THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY-LAYER UNDERGOES DIURNAL
COOLING BENEATH RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVELS. STILL, AT LEAST SOME
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFYING CELLS APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO MID/LATE
EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
SURFACE GUSTS.
..KERR/GUYER.. 08/15/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
LAT...LON 48929488 48339494 46929616 46929783 48129743 48829698
49089649 48929488
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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