314
ACUS48 KWNS 150845
SWOD48
SPC AC 150844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
..DISCUSSION
..MONDAY/DAY 4 TO WEDNESDAY/DAY 6
AT MID-LEVELS, HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ALONG PARTS OF A
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW-MOVING AND SITUATED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON MONDAY FROM PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STORMS WITH AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THE
GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE FURTHER TO THE EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
ON WEDNESDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. IN THIS AREA,
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW.
..THURSDAY/DAY 7 AND FRIDAY/DAY 8
ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH
THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSOURI UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY
IS LOW AT THIS RANGE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 08/15/2025
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