573
ACUS11 KWNS 151201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151201
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-151330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST SD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ND/WEST-CENTRAL
MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151201Z - 151330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL BUT RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED STORM CLUSTER HAS
RECENTLY INTENSIFIED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD, AS IT HAS ENCOUNTERED INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY
(WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG). THE LONGEVITY OF THIS CLUSTER
IS UNCERTAIN, DUE TO ITS ELEVATED NATURE AND SOME INCREASE IN
DOWNSTREAM MUCINH NOTED IN RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES. MIDLEVEL
FLOW OF 25-35 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR THIS CLUSTER AS LONG AS IT PERSISTS.
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS CLUSTER
OVER THE LAST 60-90 MINUTES, AND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
MAY CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS THIS CLUSTER APPROACHES FAR
WEST-CENTRAL MN. HAIL IN EXCESS OF 1-INCH IN DIAMETER HAS ALSO BEEN
RECENTLY OBSERVED, AND STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS COULD CONTINUE TO
POSE AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY.
..DEAN/HART.. 08/15/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 46079814 46299751 46509606 46509566 46259528 45579542
45169571 45169665 45359783 46079814
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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