441  
ACUS11 KWNS 151252  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 151252  
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-151415-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0752 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEAST NE INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST IA  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY  
 
VALID 151252Z - 151415Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY CONTINUE  
INTO MID MORNING.  
 
DISCUSSION...A STRONG CELL HAS RECENTLY EVOLVED OUT OF A STORM  
CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHEAST NE. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED  
WITH AN MCV THAT EMERGED OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE  
RATES WERE OBSERVED ON REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS, AND THIS CELL COULD  
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS IN THE  
SHORT TERM AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A FAVORABLY  
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG).  
 
THE LONGEVITY OF THIS STORM THIS MORNING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, DUE TO  
ITS EVOLUTION INTO A DISCRETE CELL, AND A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR  
VEERING AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH TIME. RECENT  
HRRR/RRFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER MAY  
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTHERN IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
THIS MCV, THOUGH SUCH AN EVOLUTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE MORNING  
OR EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE AID OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.  
 
..DEAN/HART.. 08/15/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...  
 
LAT...LON 42079848 42579813 42669619 41989599 41769675 41759818  
42079848  
 
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN  
 
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