526
FNUS22 KWNS 151953
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 2 (SATURDAY). A
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA INTRODUCING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (35-40 KNOTS) INTO SOUTHEASTERN OR AND CENTRAL ID WILL PROMOTE
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD THUNDERSTORM TRAJECTORIES. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT COULD EXTEND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. LIMITED
RAINFALL COULD SUPPORT NEW IGNITIONS OVER DRY FUELS WITH OUTFLOW
WINDS IMPACTING EXISTING ACTIVE FIRES ACROSS THE AREA.
..GREAT BASIN
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
NV AND WESTERN UT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 15 MPH ALONG WITH
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15% ARE EXPECTED IN SOME VALLEYS
IN THE GREAT BASIN BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..WILLIAMS.. 08/15/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0200 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS CENTRAL
US RIDGING ALSO BUILDS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS WESTERN US
TROUGHING DEEPENS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OR, WA
AND NORTHERN CA, WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, PERSISTENT MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PALACE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEST OF THE CASCADES. TO THE EAST, DIURNAL
HEATING AND MORE MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRIER STORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN OR INTO WESTERN ID. WHILE
SOME WETTING RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, THE MODEST MOISTURE AND FASTER
STORM SPEED SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
..SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AS THE WESTERN US TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST OVER THE WEST. STILL, SOME INCREASE IS
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NV AND WESTERN UT. WHILE NOT
OVERLY STRONG, AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 15 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW RH (BELOW 15) LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AMIDST DRY
FUELS. THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS FOR NOW PRECLUDES ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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