405  
ACUS11 KWNS 152050  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 152049  
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-152245-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0349 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY  
 
VALID 152049Z - 152245Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH  
STORMS THAT CAN MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A WATCH  
IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.  
 
DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR  
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL  
HIGH PLAINS. MODEST MOISTURE (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S F) IN EASTERN  
WYOMING HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO  
DEVELOP. INHIBITION IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS  
SLOWLY WEAKENING. SOME THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE OFF THE  
TERRAIN. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE  
POSSIBLE. THE OBSERVED 18Z UNR/LBF SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STRONGER  
INHIBITION INTO THE PLAINS. WHILE THERE IS A SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE FOR  
CONVECTION TO CLUSTER AND EVENTUALLY INTENSIFY, THIS IS NOT LIKELY  
TO OCCUR UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN MLCIN ERODES FARTHER EAST. AT THAT  
POINT, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS IN THE REGION AND MID-LEVEL  
ASCENT WILL BE MARGINALLY STRONGER. THAT SAID, A WATCH IS NOT  
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM.  
 
..WENDT/MOSIER.. 08/15/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...  
 
LAT...LON 40930472 42240527 43610539 44230503 44200432 42610305  
41490258 40550269 40080307 39970351 40090422 40930472  
 
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  
 
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