742  
ACUS11 KWNS 160420  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 160420  
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-160545-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1120 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593...  
 
VALID 160420Z - 160545Z  
 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593  
CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY  
BE NEEDED.  
 
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING  
ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS  
HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.  
 
THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE  
WIND REPORTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOUR. MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE STORMS  
REMAINS IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG, EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 25  
KNOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO AROUND 50 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL  
SOUTH DAKOTA, AND AT LEAST MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINS ATOP  
THE AREA AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE  
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE.  
 
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE SEVERE POTENTIAL -- MOST LIKELY WIND  
-- WILL REMAIN AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST. AT THEIR CURRENT SPEEDS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
APPROACH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH  
BEFORE THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 3 AM CT. AS SUCH, AN ADDITIONAL  
DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED PERHAPS AS SOON AS WITHIN THE  
HOUR.  
 
..MARSH.. 08/16/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...  
 
LAT...LON 42070275 42980279 42990300 43590301 43830268 43860400  
44160408 44140345 44250346 44250358 44600354 44590297  
45020299 45020204 45450199 45470037 44910042 44899967  
44229966 43959932 43699942 43509930 43489952 42989955  
42960018 42060017 42070275  
 
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  
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