298
ACUS02 KWNS 160546
SWODY2
SPC AC 160545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY.
..NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY
AT MID-LEVELS, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS, AS A LOW
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN MONTANA. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR KEEPING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEP AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
BE MOSTLY IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. FROM NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND TO THE EAST, STRONG
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST IOWA
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
REMAIN LIMITED, WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED. IF A
CELL OR TWO CAN INITIATE AND PERSIST, THE STRONG INSTABILITY COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS.
TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MINNESOTA, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA, THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY. FOR THIS REASON, ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL SHOULD BE MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 08/16/2025
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