337  
ACUS11 KWNS 160719  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 160718  
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-160845-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0218 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...  
 
VALID 160718Z - 160845Z  
 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594  
CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY...A SWATH OF SEVERE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.  
 
DISCUSSION...AN INTENSIFYING STORM CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD  
RECENTLY PRODUCED A 79 MPH GUST IN TRIPP COUNTY, WITH OTHER MEASURED  
GUSTS 60-70 MPH OVER THE LAST HOUR. WITH STRONG TO EXTREME  
DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG) AND SUFFICIENT  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THIS CLUSTER MAY BECOME FURTHER ORGANIZED AND  
POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO A BOWING MCS AS IT TRACKS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL  
INTO EASTERN SD OVERNIGHT, TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR  
THE SD/NE BORDER. RECENT HRRR/RRFS RUNS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.  
 
WHILE MLCINH WILL TEND TO INCREASE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT,  
FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A  
SWATH OF STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS WITH AN ORGANIZED MCS, POTENTIALLY  
NEAR/ABOVE 75 MPH ON AT LEAST A LOCALIZED BASIS. ISOLATED HAIL WILL  
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS, AS WELL AS  
WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL  
WARM-ADVECTION ZONE IN ADVANCE OF THE MCS.  
 
GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION AND EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THIS SYSTEM,  
EVENTUAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.  
 
..DEAN/HART.. 08/16/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR...  
 
LAT...LON 44499964 44919802 45089672 45099576 44269552 43569550  
43369579 43299679 43219800 43169862 43129913 43109984  
43319961 43689943 44009951 44499964  
 
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN  
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