762
ACUS11 KWNS 161220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161220
WIZ000-MNZ000-161345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595...
VALID 161220Z - 161345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL
MAY CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING.
DISCUSSION...AN EARLIER COMPACT BOWING MCS HAS LARGELY WEAKENED THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN, AFTER ENCOUNTERING EXTENSIVE
PRECEDING CONVECTION. A LARGER AND MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS IS
ONGOING, AIDED IN PART BY THE REMNANT COLD POOL FROM THE EARLIER
SYSTEM. FAVORABLE MUCAPE (2000-3000 J/KG) WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN WI, THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
STABILITY AND STRONG MLCINH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SHORT-TERM
DAMAGING-WIND THREAT RATHER ISOLATED. ISOLATED HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CORES.
WHILE CLOUDINESS IS EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION, MODEST DIURNAL
HEATING MAY EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WITH TIME.
HOWEVER, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPTICK IN THE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
MAY NOT EVOLVE UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING OR INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
SHORT TERM, WW ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM OF WW 595 IS UNLIKELY, UNLESS
NOTABLE INTENSIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE NEXT 60-90 MINUTES.
..DEAN/HART.. 08/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 43589478 45639340 46229385 46549325 46319148 45079029
44469038 43839087 43589173 43589478
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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