579
ACUS02 KWNS 161728
SWODY2
SPC AC 161727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN CONUS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND.
..UPPER MIDWEST
DECAYING CONVECTIVE SWATHS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY,
CENTERED ON THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHERN MN. THE EASTERN LOBE OF
THIS MORNING ACTIVITY WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BAROCLINIC ZONE, AS DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING OCCURS
ACROSS IT THROUGH THE DAY. PRESENCE OF MID TO UPPER RIDGING
EMANATING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ANTICYCLONE
WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE ROBUST SEVERE POTENTIAL.
STILL, DRIFTING MCVS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE BUOYANCY IN THE WARM-MOIST
SECTOR SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED LATE-AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS MOST PROBABLE IN THE EASTERN SD TO
SOUTHWEST MN VICINITY, WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE TRAILING INTO CENTRAL
NE. A MIX OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND INITIALLY SHOULD TRANSITION
TO MAINLY SPORADIC STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SLOW-MOVING CLUSTERS/MCSS DEVELOP. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH ANY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES NEAR THE FRONT.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EMANATE OUT OF LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INITIATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MT AND
SEPARATELY IN THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY. A MODEST COMBINATION OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY A STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MT. THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL SHOULD MODULATE THE EASTERN EXTENT OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY EVENING.
..NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG
IT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUOYANCY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE WEAK AND WILL
REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE ROBUST SEVERE POTENTIAL. MORE
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST IN NEW ENGLAND WHERE LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL SHOULD BE FAVORED. FARTHER SOUTHWEST,
MULTICELL CLUSTERING SHOULD BE DOMINANT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
FROM SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS.
..GRAMS.. 08/16/2025
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