582  
ACUS11 KWNS 161934  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 161934  
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-162100-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0234 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND  
NORTHWEST INDIANA  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596...  
 
VALID 161934Z - 162100Z  
 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596  
CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL  
MINNESOTA. THE MKX VWP IS SAMPLING AROUND 45 KNOTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW  
WHICH IS RESULTING IN AROUND 40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SHEAR  
DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT TO ONLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS  
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THEREFORE, STORMS MAY BECOME LESS  
ORGANIZED AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT AS THEY CONGEAL AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, GREATER INSTABILITY (3000-4000 J/KG  
MLCAPE) AND NEAR 2 INCH PWAT VALUES WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND  
THREAT AS THE STORM CLUSTER MOVES SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
..BENTLEY/MOSIER.. 08/16/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...DVN...  
 
LAT...LON 42908961 43088920 43088827 42948766 42628728 42018704  
41668691 41358689 41178707 41188772 41328848 41568885  
42068936 42388951 42908961  
 
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab SPC Page
Main Text Page