929
ACUS11 KWNS 162336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162336
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-170130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162336Z - 170130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL MAY BE AN INITIAL CONCERN, BUT THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA HAS RESULTED IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG IN AREAS. WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE.
CONTINUED SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST SURFACE WINDS BENEATH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A SHEARED (ESHR AROUND 35-40 KNOTS) ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG, DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING AND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS CONGEAL AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. ISOLATED LARGE
TO PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST, MORE
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS EVENING REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR, BUT MAY INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE AFTER 9 PM MDT. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE EVENT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEGINS TO
INCREASE.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 08/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 42800197 43310375 44510434 45780402 46130352 45920163
45520078 44390047 43250061 42800197
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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