806
ACUS11 KWNS 171958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171957
NEZ000-SDZ000-172130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST SD AND NORTHWEST NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171957Z - 172130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE GUST THREAT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
WITH GREATER COVERAGE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A NEARLY-STATIONARY SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS WITH A WEAKER DISCRETE CELL TO ITS NORTH. THE
18Z UNR SOUNDING AND RECENT VWP DATA SAMPLED WEAK LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.
MODERATE SPEED SHEAR IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE BUOYANCY PROFILE
ALONG WITH A 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY DECAY IN
PLACE, BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TO ITS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL HIGH-BASED CU HAS
RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE AND MAY BE THE
PRECURSOR TO A SEPARATE MULTICELL CLUSTER IN A FEW HOURS.
..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 08/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 43960356 43850346 43700298 43860250 43760210 43120127
42360130 42160231 42400311 43000358 43830387 43960356
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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