995
ACUS11 KWNS 172052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172051
ILZ000-IAZ000-172215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IA TO NORTHWEST IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172051Z - 172215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SLOW-MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BUBBLED ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL IA TO NORTHWEST IL WITH AN
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALO. WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PER THE 18Z OAX
SOUNDING ALONG WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST CONVECTION
SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL. BUT LARGE BUOYANCY OWING TO
MID/UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG THE FRONT WILL AID IN WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY WHERE SMALL, MELTING HAIL CORES
DEVELOP BEFORE UPDRAFTS COLLAPSE.
..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 08/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41978929 41608916 41478961 41509043 41669203 42059343
42389392 42959356 43079309 42739152 42359023 41978929
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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