624
ACUS11 KWNS 172225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172225
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-180030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172225Z - 180030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF MODEST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER
WESTERLIES.
THE AREA IS ONLY BEING GLANCED BY THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT KEEPING
EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR MODEST (20-30 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY, MEAGER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50FS HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AT BEST. HOWEVER, STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A DRY DOWNBURST OR TWO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOWS.
A WATCH IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 08/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
LAT...LON 44661413 45821326 47161129 47470963 46630863 45410870
45320976 44821095 44281176 43941260 43821345 43941413
44661413
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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