696  
ACUS11 KWNS 172228  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 172228  
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-172330-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1979  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0528 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY  
 
VALID 172228Z - 172330Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR  
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS EVENING.  
 
DISCUSSION...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC,  
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF MORE INTENSE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAVE GRADUALLY  
EVOLVED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (DEWPOINTS IN  
THE LOW TO MID 70S F) IS IN PLACE WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING.  
DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THIS IS SUPPORTING 1000-2000  
J/KG OF MLCAPE. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS  
WITH NEAR 2 INCH PWAT CONTENT, ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS (PEAKING  
40-50 KT) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THESE  
STORM CLUSTERS.  
 
WHILE THE BACKGROUND VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY STRONG, SLIGHT  
ENHANCEMENT OF 3-6 KM FLOW TO NEAR 30 KT HAS BEEN NOTED FROM THE LWX  
AND OKX VADS. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME LOOSE STORM ORGANIZATION, AND  
LOCALLY GREATER DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THE MORE LINEAR  
CLUSTERS, AS HAS BEEN NOTED UPSTREAM OF DC AND BALTIMORE METROS.  
THESE STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 KT OVER  
POPULATED AREAS OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM LONG ISLAND SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT  
ANTICIPATED, BUT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS AND TREE DAMAGE REMAIN  
POSSIBLE.  
 
..LYONS/SMITH.. 08/17/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...  
 
LAT...LON 38767829 39337743 40297649 40817448 40847384 40667365  
40407397 39667429 39057478 38707525 38507564 38527671  
38537797 38767829  
 
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH  
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