125
ACUS02 KWNS 181730
SWODY2
SPC AC 181728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST,
MID-SOUTH, AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.
..MIDWEST TO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH/EMBEDDED MCVS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. WHILE MID-LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE WEAK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT LAKES, LOW-PROBABILITY
SEVERE GUST/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT TUESDAY ALONG A
CONVECTIVELY MODULATED SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO ARC FROM THE LAKE
ERIE VICINITY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND TRAILING INTO KS/OK. THIS
SHOULD BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE FRONT, AS WELL AS ON
PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOWS FROM EARLY-DAY CONVECTIVE REMNANTS.
RATHER WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A SWATH
OF LARGE BUOYANCY, WHICH SHOULD HAVE EMBEDDED POCKETS OF MORE MUTED
MLCAPE WHERE MORNING CONVECTION DECAYS. 12Z HREF AND ML GUIDANCE
SIGNALS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SPORADIC STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS IN WET
MICROBURSTS. WITH WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, ORGANIZED CLUSTERING
APPEARS UNLIKELY. THUS, ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SEEM PLAUSIBLE UNTIL
CONVECTION WEAKENS AROUND SUNSET.
..GRAMS.. 08/18/2025
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