416
ACUS11 KWNS 182051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182051
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-182215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 182051Z - 182215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORM COVERAGE IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
VICINITY. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA
WHERE 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE IS PRESENT AMID MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE DVN VWP SHOWS AROUND 30-40 KNOTS OF
MID-LEVEL FLOW (THE UPPER BOUNDS WHICH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE). IF THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
ENVIRONMENT, MORE ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS THIS
REGION AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS IMMINENT.
..BENTLEY/MOSIER.. 08/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40849372 41569260 42059154 41989039 42038957 41638918
40928987 40199104 39929224 40849372
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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