962
ACUS02 KWNS 190541
SWODY2
SPC AC 190539
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR
NORTHEAST MONTANA.
..NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA/FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, EXTENDING FROM A LARGE HIGH CENTERED ON THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA DURING THE DAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA INTO EAST-CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY NEAR THE FRONT
IN FAR SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN EAST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE WILL PEAK IN THE 3000 TO 4000
J/KG RANGE, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 08/19/2025
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