747
ACUS02 KWNS 191703
SWODY2
SPC AC 191702
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA.
..NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHERN ND
A STRONG UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS,
WITH ATTENDANT UPPER RIDING EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES, AND EVENTUALLY INTO SASKATCHEWAN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. AS
THIS OCCURS, MID/UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. MODESTLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MT LIKELY WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST ACROSS
WESTERN ND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE VALUES. HOWEVER, CAPPING WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS
DIURNAL CONVECTION. AS STRONG ASCENT ACCOMPANIES THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL RISK COULD
ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER SUSTAINED STORMS NEAR THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.
..LEITMAN.. 08/19/2025
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