483
ACUS03 KWNS 210730
SWODY3
SPC AC 210729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW ON SATURDAY.
...PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST INTO
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK, BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE BUOYANCY BY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL LOCATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES, BUT THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN MOST GUIDANCE IS RATHER SPARSE
ACROSS THIS AREA, LIKELY DUE TO LIMITED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT. THE 00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER, DEPICTING BOTH A
MUCH SLOWER FRONT, AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS END UP SUPPORTING MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE
A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA, RELATIVELY WEAK
DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR AND GENERALLY MODEST INSTABILITY MAY TEND TO
LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. WHILE WIND
PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH
MODESTLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME,
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS WEAKER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE MAY BE A
TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH UNCERTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, A
MARGINAL SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH HAIL POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PART OF
THIS REGION, IF TRENDS SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.
..DEAN.. 08/21/2025
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