817
ACUS03 KWNS 220719
SWODY3
SPC AC 220718
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AT MID-LEVELS, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY OVER MUCH
OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND ROCKIES. WITHIN THE FLOW, A SHORTWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY, ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING FRONT, IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS
HAVE MLCAPE PEAKING AROUND 2500 J/KG, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO
60 KNOT RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT,
WITH HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 08/22/2025
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