272
ACUS03 KWNS 261915
SWODY3
SPC AC 261914
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
AN MCS IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KS/OK/AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT DEVELOPS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ARKLATEX DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS
OK/THE PANHANDLES/EASTERN NM BY MID-AFTERNOON, THOUGH FORECAST
GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NEAR
THE BOUNDARY, A CORRIDOR OF 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE. WHILE
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK, RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF 1000-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, BUT VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT AROUND 20-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. WHERE STRONG
HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
AT THIS TIME, UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..LEITMAN.. 08/26/2025
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