716
ACUS48 KWNS 280751
SWOD48
SPC AC 280750
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
..DISCUSSION
UPPER TROUGHS WILL IMPINGE ON THE WEST AND EAST COASTS WHILE UPPER
RIDGING DOMINATES THE INTERIOR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK, SURFACE LEE TROUGHING, AMID WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FLOW
FIELDS, WILL SUPPORT MEANDERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.,
ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES, A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, PROMOTING
COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT, IT
IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR GIVEN STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
DEPICT A STRONG SIGNAL OF OVERLAPPING BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SUGGESTING THAT IF SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTS, THE PREDICTABILITY OF THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/28/2025
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