350
ACUS01 KWNS 281251
SWODY1
SPC AC 281249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND ARKLATEX...
..SUMMARY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL AND SEVERE WIND THREAT,
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS TO
THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
..SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS TO ARKLATEX
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PREVALENT THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
A WARM FRONT. WITHIN A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. RELATED
DYNAMICAL RESPONSE AND THE EARLY DAY CONVECTION WILL SHUNT THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY, WITH AMPLE HEATING/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THIS BOUNDARY.
WHILE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONALLY WARM (-4C AT 500 MB),
AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP, SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AS GENERAL
INTENSIFICATION OCCURS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW INITIAL
SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR, AND SOME TORNADO RISK COULD ALSO EXIST WITH
CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EAST OF THE WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. CLUSTERING/UPSCALE-QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH SHOULD OCCUR
BY EARLY EVENING AS STORMS PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO
POSE A DAMAGING WIND RISK FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.
..EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY AS
UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. WHILE
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT THAT STRONG ACROSS COLORADO, LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.
..GUYER/KERR.. 08/28/2025
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