118
ACUS03 KWNS 281850
SWODY3
SPC AC 281849
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY, WITH
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN 60S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS SOUTHWARD
INTO EASTERN NM AND WESTERN TX. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
FOSTER MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
MODEST, BUT VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES WILL SUPPORT 20-30 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ELONGATED FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT, WHILE STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUPPORT STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD BE NEED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN A MORE CONCENTRATED
CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..LEITMAN.. 08/28/2025
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