651
ACUS03 KWNS 301917
SWODY3
SPC AC 301916
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGING INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
ON MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EAST, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS VALLEY TO THE EAST
COAST. UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN US, WHILE ROBUST MOISTURE CONTENT LINGERS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SOUTH OVER
THE PLAINS, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH. CLOUD DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW
FROM THESE CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY MODIFY THE SURROUNDING AIR MASS
CASTING SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. STILL,
SOME HEATING OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST
BUOYANCY BY THE AFTERNOON. REINTENSIFICATION OF SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS, OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW OR
MCVS IS POSSIBLE. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE MODEST BUOYANCY AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL
LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5%.
..LYONS.. 08/30/2025
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