553
ACUS48 KWNS 310851
SWOD48
SPC AC 310849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
..DISCUSSION
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND THE MS VALLEY DAY 4 (WEDNESDAY) BEFORE IMPINGING ON THE
EAST COAST BY DAYS 5-6 (THURSDAY-FRIDAY) AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT, SUPPORTING POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN FAVORABLE OVERLAPPING
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THEREAFTER, POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY RICHER MOISTURE. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A CLEARER SEVERE THREAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT/SHEAR POTENTIALLY LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY STILL
SUPPORT ENOUGH OF A SEVERE THREAT TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES BY THE
DAYS 1-3 TIME FRAME. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, AS A SECOND MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTS AROUND THE BROADER
CYCLONIC FLOW ENVELOPING THE EASTERN U.S. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, ENOUGH
FAVORABLE OVERLAPPING BUOYANCY AND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE RISK.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/31/2025
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