842
ACUS01 KWNS 311619
SWODY1
SPC AC 311617
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH IS SITUATION BETWEEN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS, AND EXTENSIVE UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RECENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, MS VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ANALYSIS ALSO
PLACED A WEAK LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER VICINITY, WITH WEAK
TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THIS LOW INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NE
BEFORE ARCING BACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODEST SURFACE TROUGHING ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NM.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGHING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHWEST TX AS WELL.
LIMITED BUOYANCY, OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES,
SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY.
SOME EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN WA, NORTHERN ID, AND FAR NORTHWEST MT AS ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
..MOSIER/LYONS.. 08/31/2025
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