359
FNUS21 KWNS 311627
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VALID 311700Z - 011200Z
THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE REGARDING LIGHTNING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES TODAY/TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY, AS SEEN IN RECENT OBSERVATIONAL LIGHTNING DATA,
RELATIVELY GREATER CHANCES (10-20%) ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. NOCTURNAL ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
WARM/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE FUELS (BASED ON
THE LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE). BREEZY/ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEARBY ANY THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
TODAY'S FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
..ELLIOTT.. 08/31/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD D2/SUNDAY INTO D3/MONDAY. CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE
COASTAL RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THIS THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE ANY AREAS AT THIS TIME.
A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LIGHTNING POTENTIAL (WITH POTENTIAL STRONG
CAPPING AND WEAK ASCENT) COUPLED WITH RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
48-72 HOURS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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