922
ACUS03 KWNS 010729
SWODY3
SPC AC 010728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN WHILE ALSO TAKEN ON A MORE NEUTRAL
TILT OVER THE MIDWEST AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS WEST OF THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE
CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. SEASONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE AID OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. SINCE
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND SUPPORT ADEQUATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT,
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
..PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY AFTERNOON, SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S F
AMID MID 60S F DEWPOINTS, WHICH WHEN OVERSPREAD BY 7+ C/KM MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, WILL YIELD OVER 2000 J/KG MLCAPE, ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN KS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WITH HEIGHT, FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER, THEN INCREASE FROM 20 KTS
AROUND 700 MB, TO ABOUT 40 KTS IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THIS PROFILE
WILL SUPPORT MODESTLY ELONGATED AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 40-50 KTS
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE MIXED MODAL BETWEEN MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
CATEGORY 1/MARGINAL RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED,
THOUGH HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IF IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT
MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS CAN MATERIALIZE OVER EASTERN KS.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/01/2025
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