533
ACUS01 KWNS 011624
SWODY1
SPC AC 011622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2025
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NE LATE THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
OZARKS BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BELT OF
MODESTLY ENHANCED NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS (AROUND 30-40
KT AT 500 MB). WHILE THE RELATED SURFACE RESPONSE WILL REMAIN MUTED,
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD FROM KS INTO
OK, WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS PRECEDING THE ADVANCING
BOUNDARY. ONGOING LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
ERODE THIS AFTERNOON, YIELDING AMPLE INSOLATION AND A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHWEST OK. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
FRONT/WIND SHIFT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THE ENHANCED
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND
PERHAPS MARGINAL SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OK.
..GLEASON/LYONS.. 09/01/2025
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