746
ACUS01 KWNS 020102
SWODY1
SPC AC 020100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2025
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
..NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AT MID-LEVELS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THE RAP HAS A
POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN THIS POCKET
OF INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS,
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING
HAVE 0-6 KM NEAR 45 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, THE OKLAHOMA CITY 00Z
SOUNDINGS HAS A SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED SEVERE GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR.
..NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR AN AXIS OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES.
..SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN THIS
PLUME IN THE PHOENIX AREA. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A
POCKET OF INSTABILITY, WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000
TO 1500 J/KG RANGE, ACCORDING TO THE RAP. THE 00Z SOUNDING AT TUSCON
HAS A SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 55 F, WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 9.7
C/KM, WITH A DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO
700 MB. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
..BROYLES.. 09/02/2025
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