575
ACUS02 KWNS 020601
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, AND AN INSTANCE OR TWO
OF 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION
WHILE UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TOMORROW
(WEDNESDAY). THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ACTING AS A LOW-LEVEL LIFTING SOURCE (VIA
CONVERGENCE) FOR SEASONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. AT
LEAST SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG FLOW/SHEAR AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE, SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE.
..CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS FROM THE
NORTH, SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED 80 F AMID MID TO UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS. WITH 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THIS
AIRMASS, MLCAPE MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG IN SPOTS.
KINEMATICALLY SPEAKING, VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, OVERSPREAD BY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLIES WILL YIELD CURVED AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WITH
40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SUPERCELLS, ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT A COUPLE OF STRONGER, SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN BOTH THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, A COUPLE INSTANCES OF 2+ INCH HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/02/2025
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