348
ACUS03 KWNS 020725
SWODY3
SPC AC 020724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2025
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ON THURSDAY. THROUGH THE PERIOD, A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW INTO QUEBEC WHILE AN EVEN
MORE POTENT EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE
MIDWEST. AS A RESULT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SURGE
EASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND IMPINGE ON THE EAST COAST, WHERE
SEASONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AN EXTENSIVE
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN OVERLAPPING BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, ENCOUNTERING LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE POOR,
YIELDING THIN MLCAPE PROFILES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. THE LACK
OF STRONGER BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO A DEGREE.
NONETHELESS, STRENGTHENING AND VEERING OF THE 850-500 MB FLOW WITH
HEIGHT WILL ENCOURAGE CURVED/ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WITH 40-50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. A BROKEN SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, PERHAPS WITH TRANSIENT ROTATING CELLS, CAPABLE OF
MAINLY DAMAGING GUSTS, WARRANTING THE INTRODUCTION OF CATEGORY
1/MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/02/2025
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