377
ACUS48 KWNS 020835
SWOD48
SPC AC 020834
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2025
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
..DISCUSSION
A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATE THIS WEEK, EJECTING INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER, A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ENSUE, WITH
MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CONUS
EARLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DESPITE DIFFERENCES AMONG
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE MEMBERS, THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER SEASONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. DAYS 4-5 (FRIDAY-SATURDAY), PROMOTING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL (SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG). HOWEVER, ANY SEVERE THREAT
ACCOMPANYING THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE MS RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES BY NEXT WEEK. NONETHELESS, OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT, ALONG
WITH BUOYANCY, ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK OVER THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK,
WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARING LOW.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/02/2025
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