680
ACUS11 KWNS 022016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022016
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-022215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN AND FAR
NORTHWEST WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 022016Z - 022215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EAST OF ABERDEEN, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CUMULUS NOTED FARTHER
SOUTHWEST INTO EAST-CENTRAL SD, AND ALSO FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MN. CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SD, WHERE MLCAPE HAS
INCREASED TO NEAR/ABOVE 1500 J/KG. PARTS OF MN ARE STILL RECOVERING
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS, BUT SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE DESTABILIZATION MAY
EVOLVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MN
INTO FAR NORTHWEST WI. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH COVERAGE REMAINING SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS SD.
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY NOT VERY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION,
BUT MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES
IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-30 KT. A FEW STRONGER MULTICELLS
AND PERHAPS A TRANSIENT SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP (GENERALLY NEAR 7 C/KM), BUT
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS ND COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE STRONGER HEATING AND STEEPENING OF
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 09/02/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 43439924 43949969 44659916 45659670 46319532 47159348
46889240 46559196 45969178 45269292 44429424 43599625
43479845 43439924
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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