429
ACUS01 KWNS 030538
SWODY1
SPC AC 030536
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
..CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AT MID-LEVELS, HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S., AS A
LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON. WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED AND MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS, AND WESTERN
MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TO MID EVENING.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MLCAPE PEAKING IN THE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE, WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 45 KNOTS, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SPEED
SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 600 MB. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS. MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM WILL
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS, OR WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF MERGING CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE MID EVENING, AS SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
..BROYLES/THORNTON.. 09/03/2025
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