606
ACUS02 KWNS 031732
SWODY2
SPC AC 031731
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2025
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO NEW
YORK...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY IMPACT A CORRIDOR FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEP/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER ONTARIO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE
BROAD LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
AN EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY, WHILE A RELATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MOVES GRADUALLY
EASTWARD.
..TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO NY
DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, DIURNAL HEATING AMID MIDDLE/UPPER
50 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO
LOCALLY MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WHERE 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. THE STRONGER STORM
CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH, A ROBUST MIDLEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS, THE POST-FRONTAL NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK.
..WEINMAN.. 09/03/2025
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