865
ACUS03 KWNS 040716
SWODY3
SPC AC 040715
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT THU SEP 04 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...
..SUMMARY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY POSE A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
.. DISCUSSION
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN US ON
SATURDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE UPPER-80FS TO LOW-90FS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER-60FS TO LOW-70FS. AS A RESULT A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY
PERHAPS AS GREAT AS 2000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC. DESPITE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS AND
2000 J/KG CAPE, POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
..MARSH.. 09/04/2025
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