778
ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI SEP 05 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE PRIMARILY A
RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ALONG/NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAKE
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL FOCUS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT DEPENDING ON WHERE DESTABILIZATION CAN
OCCUR. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHWEST.
..MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN GUIDANCE. THIS
TIMING, ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH, WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN WHERE DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE IS HIGHER WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT GIVEN
THE BETTER MID-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER,
THIS AREA ALSO MAY HAVE GREATER CLOUD COVER CONCERNS. EVEN SO, THERE
ARE MODELS THAT SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S F.
SHOULD THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES OCCUR, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD AS CONVECTION
MIXES DOWN THE STRONGER 850 MB WINDS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
RATHER POOR, THOUGH LONG HODOGRAPHS COULD PROMOTE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL IN ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND PERSIST. DISCRETE
MODES WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED GIVEN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLEL
TO THE COLD FRONT.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE PIEDMONT, SURFACE HEATING AND BUOYANCY WILL
BE GREATER. SHEAR WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT.
HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER WITH NEAR NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT TENDENCIES. STORM COVERAGE MAY END UP TIED TO LOCALLY GREATER
ASCENT FROM A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE/MCV. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..NORTHWEST
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OREGON, FAVORABLY
TIMED WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -13 TO -15 C AT 500
MB WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW-END BUOYANCY. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. MOST MODELS SUGGEST STRONG MIXING WILL OCCUR WITH THE NAM
BEING THE OUTLIER WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE HEATING GIVEN SMOKE WITHIN THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORM COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR PROBABILITIES,
BUT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF GREATER MOISTURE REMAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..WENDT.. 09/05/2025
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