135
ACUS03 KWNS 050728
SWODY3
SPC AC 050727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT FRI SEP 05 2025
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW ON SUNDAY.
..CAROLINAS
WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ON
SUNDAY. SOME REMAINING, MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESIDE
ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WITHIN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO WHETHER SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTS. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING CONVECTION OCCURRING
ONSHORE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE RATON MESA
MINOR MID-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCEMENT WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODEST
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER, QUESTIONS REMAIN WHETHER CAPPING WILL FULLY ERODE IN THE
HIGH PLAINS. IF ACTIVITY CAN MOVE OFF OF THE TERRAIN, IT MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED. WHILE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR, CONFIDENCE IN A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LIMITED.
..WENDT.. 09/05/2025
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