383
ACUS11 KWNS 052030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052030
WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-052230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT FRI SEP 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 052030Z - 052230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR INCREASING SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVENING. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA
SHOW A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS AND THE FIRST
SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS PARTS OF
TN AND KY. CONTINUED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT AND A WARM/UNCAPPED AIR MASS (PER MESOANALYSIS AND THE
LATEST BNA ACARS SOUNDING) SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVOLVING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE-STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY (PER MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS)
AND AROUND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR (STRONGER WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT). THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION. A MIX OF ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE, POSING A RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN WEAK LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT, TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED, AND ONE OR MORE
WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 09/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...
LAT...LON 34858898 35178921 35748905 36728734 37258631 38298369
38948262 38938214 38538181 38018196 36788349 35268601
34858732 34708848 34858898
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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