027
ACUS11 KWNS 052300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052259
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT FRI SEP 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN AND FAR NORTH AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606...
VALID 052259Z - 060100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A MORE CONCENTRATED SWATH OF STRONG TO LOCALIZED SEVERE
GUSTS IS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER TO
ACCELERATE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH
MID-EVENING.
DISCUSSION...THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CORES HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TN. THESE HAVE CONGEALED INTO AN
INITIALLY SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WITH FORWARD
MOTION OF ONLY 15-20 KTS. BUT WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, FROM UPPER 60S IN THE EMERGING COLD POOL TO
85-90 F PERSISTING AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW, A MORE CONCENTRATED SWATH
OF STRONG TO LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS MAY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. THIS WOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH PROBABLE ACCELERATION OF THE
COLD POOL THAT YIELDS MORE MODERATE WESTERLY STORM MOTIONS INTO
MID-EVENING. THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF
WW 606 AND NECESSITATE A LOCAL AREAL EXTENSION. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES EVIDENT IN AREA VWP DATA DOES LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON JUST HOW ROBUST THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BECOME.
..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 09/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 35808757 36028694 36128610 36018547 35588533 35228532
34868547 34708578 34638702 34658780 34668835 34978833
35428779 35808757
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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