259
ACUS02 KWNS 061717
SWODY2
SPC AC 061715
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 06 2025
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ON SUNDAY.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES/WESTERN U.S. DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH SOME WARMING IN MID/UPPER LEVELS NOTED.
NEAR/AFTER 00Z, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EJECT EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, RESULTING IN
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT INTO CO/NE/KS. AT
THE SURFACE, WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW,
AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 50S TO NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS IS FORECAST FROM
SOUTHWEST NE INTO EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS, SOUTHWARD OVER FAR
EASTERN NM, AND WESTERN TX/OK. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST WITH RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5-7 C/KM ATOP THE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY WEAK MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000
J/KG. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES (SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVELS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WITH HEIGHT) WILL FOSTER MODEST EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 25 KT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITHIN THE MODESTLY UNSTABLE/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING, AND MAY AID IN SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE A COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER. A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL OR
GUSTY WINDS, BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN A
LACK OF STRONGER FORCING/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND CONCERNS OVER
LIMITED STORM COVERAGE.
..COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST GA
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENT AS THE STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO WILL REMAIN LIMITED,
WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST 700 MB EVIDENT IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CLOUD COVER AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL, BUT WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 09/06/2025
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