687
ACUS11 KWNS 061727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061727
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-061930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VA. SOUTHERN MD...AND
NORTHERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061727Z - 061930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING
SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THOUGH TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
AGITATED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN VA
INTO NORTHERN NC, AND INITIAL SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION ARE
EVIDENT. CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AMID LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES, THE WARM/MOIST PBL WILL STILL YIELD MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY, WHICH WILL FAVOR GRADUAL UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION.
ADDITIONALLY, AROUND 35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY PROMOTE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS, WITH A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND ISOLATED/SPORADIC MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO LOCALIZED/MARGINAL FOR A WATCH,
THOUGH TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 09/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36707962 37807819 38887753 39127731 38967663 38577635
36907696 36157807 35857875 35927934 36217971 36707962
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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