197
ACUS02 KWNS 071657
SWODY2
SPC AC 071655
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 07 2025
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS, NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
ON MONDAY.
..KS/OK/TX
A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS AS THE WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EAST TO THE ROCKIES AND A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. A WEAK, CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL BE LOCATED OVER KS MONDAY MORNING, SHIFTING
EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
AT THE SURFACE, A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OK AND THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN KS BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING WITHIN
THE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER, STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY REMAIN UNCERTAIN GIVEN POTENTIAL INFLUENCE
FROM OUTFLOW AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME
SUSTAINED, VERTICALLY VEERING/SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES WITH
ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL (AND
POTENTIALLY SOME HAIL STONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES DIAMETER). AN
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INITIATION LOCATION
INCREASES.
..NE TO UPPER MIDWEST
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NE
INTO THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOP SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT 60S F DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CAPPING, ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING, WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WARM ADVECTION AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN MN/WI, BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE. IF ANY STORM CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR,
IT COULD BECOME STRONG, BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD A WARM AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. NEVERTHELESS, STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SPORADIC
STRONG GUSTS FROM HIGH-BASED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OR INTO SOUTHERN
WA.
..LEITMAN.. 09/07/2025
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