568
ACUS11 KWNS 072158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072157
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-080000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT SUN SEP 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 072157Z - 080000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
DISCUSSION...INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS HAVE INCREASED OFF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA VICINITY OF NORTHEAST NM AND IN A
SEPARATE SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM PUEBLO TO
LINCOLN COUNTY, CO. TOWERING CU AND INCIPIENT CB DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
UNDERWAY ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CO, NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE NM CONVECTION. WITH A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF SURFACE DEW
POINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S OUT AHEAD OF THE RATON
MESA/SOUTHEAST CO ACTIVITY, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SPORADIC SEVERE
HAIL/WIND GUSTS MAY BE IN THIS CORRIDOR WHERE A MODERATE COMBINATION
OF BUOYANCY/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PERSISTS LONGEST. CONVECTION FARTHER
NORTH WILL AT LEAST HAVE A NEAR-TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE BUT
SHOULD WANE IN A FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY IF SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 09/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36120511 36790428 37250401 37700408 38290441 38810442
39110404 39400327 39390252 38450179 37990164 37240191
36540245 35430369 35390486 36120511
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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